Friday, April 25, 2008

Federal Election Watch

I haven't been commenting much over the never ending election speculation that seems to be all that the Parliamentary Press Gallery can will itself to write about. Mostly because I just don't buy any of it - it is in no one's self-interest right now to have an election and I think that the game theory dynamics of the current federal political scene would point towards a fall 08' election at the earliest, with my bet being sometime in 09'.

That said, I am bringing this up because in the last few days I have been at presentations by both Paul Martin (yes, he is still alive and actually in fine fighting form) and Martha Hall Findley, and have conversations with friends and colleagues involved with the Liberals and other parties both here in Saskatchewan and in Ottawa. My conclusion - a 50/50 chance that the Government will fall within the next two weeks. Either over the immigration legislation or a non-confidence vote surrounding the in-and-out scandal.

That said, I do think that two weeks from now there will still be no election and we can look forward to a summer of attack ads by the Conservatives so they can take advantage of not having to deal with such pesky annoyances as spending limits.